SoE gamble

AFTER EIGHT hours of debate, Parliament on January 13 extended the state of emergency for three months. In doing so, both sides of the House have taken a gamble and made, in a general election year, a leap in the dark.

Available indicators suggest the emergency has already had an impact, even though it does not include a curfew.

The first weeks of 2025 saw 13 homicides. At this rate, murders are set to be less than half of what they were in January 2024. This significant drop aligns with previous emergencies, such as in 2011.

However, there is the risk that once the novelty wears off, the figures will go back up.

The Prime Minister’s concession that killings will not be eliminated, coupled with the positions adopted by his ministers during the sitting, suggests dangers ahead.

The Cabinet’s stance is that the emergency is a legal tool and was precipitated by narrow circumstances.

Yet, the threat to public safety addressed by it is both specific and diffuse.

With long-standing concerns about bad prison conditions returning to the fore, Minister of National Security Fitzgerald Hinds simply asserted certain facilities are “suitable for occupation.”

Minister in the Office of the Prime Minister Stuart Young, meanwhile, defended the emergency regulations, saying the burden of proof has shifted under them.

But this all assumes police officers can arrest individuals to whom the law applies.

Dr Rowley’s statement that officers in “some districts” are “so afraid of the criminals that they close the police station” is not likely to motivate or boost morale. Police officers have been complaining about operating without the required complement for years. They have been asked to give up their leave.

Nor does the PM’s remark instil confidence in the population or inspire citizens to co-operate with these law enforcement officers.

In fact, the government risks angering police and antagonising a truly fearful population caught up in exercises in the coming weeks. All this in a year in which the ability of citizens to have a say will reach its zenith through the exercise of the franchise.

The opposition, too, having not raised objection at the vote (the PNM voted against the 2011 People’s Partnership emergency) is also taking a chance. UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar called for this measure previously. And in supporting it, the party continues its countering of a PNM narrative of opposition obstruction.

But should the UNC enter office after the next poll, it will face a situation in which emergencies are of diluted impact.

Indeed, that is the same risk faced by the entire country, unless crime is rooted out by deeper policies and not just attacked with a superficial legal cudgel, expiring in a few months’ time.

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